Friday 20 November 2020

Biden Presidency Prediction List

  • Trump is obviously not going away

    • Potential options are returning to his old life in now as a fully conservative celebrity rather than quasi-liberal, becoming a kingmaker for the future GOP candidate, or pulling a Grover Cleveland and winning in 2024. Rallies will not stop happening but they'll be more infrequent as Trump gets lazier

    • He'll be shockingly transparent about certain aspects of the presidency that will further in his role in taking the mask off of the internal rot of the American government. This will be largely ignored in the mainstream media for the sake of rebuilding the prestige of the presidency with Joe Biden but it will land significantly on social media

    • Though his image will slowly get reformed (especially if it becomes unlikely he'll run again), he will become persona non grata in the mainstream media to appear otherwise, making only rare appearances on there to speak as an ex-president

    • Fox News will be added to his shit-list

      • He will try create a media-apparatus for himself to compete with Fox either from the ground-up or joining OANN, attempting to bring over Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity to join. Most likely they will try to carry water for him at stay on Fox News for the good pay, though perhaps they may be so sycophantic that they will come to join him

      • Depending on the success of Biden's presidency and the prospects of the GOP vis-a-vis Trump, Fox News will either crush him in the competition (though they might not have to as Trump will just fall flat on his face trying to go after him) or bury the hatchet to prep him for 2024

      • Either way, expect a lot of dirty laundry to be aired out from both camps

  • A few GOP figures will start offering mea culpas (if they haven't already) for going as far as they did with Trump, with more of them getting rehabilitated than would be comfortable (the number I would personally be comfortable with is absolutely zero)

  • Conservatives won't consider Biden to be their legitimate president to such a point that some will try to do Russiagate tactics on him in an effort to get him impeached. Most likely, this won't go as far as there will be an even flimsier case to be made without foreign election interference. They may however try to pad a case to get Biden impeached on account of all the dealings Hunter Biden made but that too will lead nowhere

  • Very slight student debt relief and $15 minimum wage nationally will be followed through on to be something that the administration and its allies in the media class can point to showing that Joe's getting some change done. But it'll come from some negotiation that results in the GOP getting a greater win in some fashion. Perhaps Biden will finally get a chance to cut Social Security and spin it as a good thing

  • Legal immigration will be improved under Biden slightly but deportations will be between Trump and Obama levels. 

  • The Dems will try to make some of the norms that Trump violated into law (ex. you'll have to show your tax returns to run) but they won't go anywhere. Biden himself will violate those same norms and hours will be spent on each side jerking each other off about how hypocritical the other side is being

  • Biden will join the Paris Climate Agreement as promised but efforts in building back the Iran Deal will largely be futile, either from Republicans, the intelligence communities and/or the military-industrial complex trying to blow it up or Iran not having any trust in the US to keep its word

  • Pointless saber-rattling with Russia. There will be a desire to get more tough with them what with all they have wrought with their election interference but there won't be anything to attach that anger to

  • North Korea situation will get worse under Biden because they'll refuse to accept that Trump was heading in a better direction than what they were doing

  • Unlikely thawing of relationships with Cuba as Biden moves to be more assertive on Venezuela, only to result in disaster when they bungle another coup attempt

  • 50/50 chance a member of The Squad goes viral for a filibuster

  • Censorship efforts will get more insidious, as the mainstream media doubles down on its disdain of Trumpism and progressives simultaneously. More billionaires buying up news outlets with 50/50 chance Bezos gets to swoop up the New York Times

  • DC and Puerto Rican statehood will be spoken of more often, but nothing will be done about it

  • QAnon-inspired attacks will spring up all over the country. Biden will condemn such actions and ask for gun control, GOP will be disgusted but offer nothing but thoughts and prayers

  • 2022 midterm wipeout for the Dems very likely

    • If Biden does enough of a good job on COVID-19, the Senate may get into Democrats' hands to create a backwards Obama first term (that will still retain the lack of substantial policy changes that get pushed through). However this could be negated if the Republicans trigger a shutdown

    • Biden loses more Latino voters, especially in Florida. This will not assuage him or his team on trying to win them back for 2024 with Kamala

    • California Prop-22 ballot initiatives will pop up around more states here (if they don't already get through in some measure before) and will have a 50% success rate, most likely getting success in places where the Democratic machine is more powerful and therefore able to be more relentless

    • A random celebrity is going to be elected senator. Don't know who, don't know what party they'll be a part of, but it is going to happen. It won't be Kanye though

  • 2023 will see a bubble burst. Republicans will blame the Dems while the Dems will bemoan about how unpredictable it was and how they've been doing such a good job so far of keeping everything on the level, especially considering the mess that Trump left them and bailouts aplenty will go out to the the wealthy and the corporations while the rest get zilch

  • Biden's approval rating will be more volatile than Trump's, starting in the low-to-mid 60s and ending in the mid-to-high 30s, but will maintain itself in the same equilibrium as Trump where there is a constant disapproval that inches towards breaking 50

  • 2024 election will result in a Republican victory

    • Republicans will have a larger field of candidates vying for the position, but the winner will ultimately be determined by how much of Trump's magic they'll be able to get on them

    • Democrats will rally around Kamala with a few candidates trying their best to usurp her, with the most "progressive" one getting the close to doing so but ultimately failing due to the party's structure, simply not being progressive enough and/or claims of hurting the party for even daring to run. 

    • 50/50 chance a third party candidate gains some prominence

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